OPEN · SOL-23MAY26-perp
Polymarket Probability Arb on SOL · regime RANGE_BOUND · decided in 30.69 ms of a 100 ms budget.
Model snapshot at decision time
SleeveCR.7 — Polymarket Probability Arb
Decided at2026-05-23T21:48:32.174Z
UnderlyingSOL
Spot$166.81
IV percentile 90d71.2%
IV–RV spread5,784 bps
RegimeRANGE_BOUND
Confidence65.0%
Expected edge191 bps
Expected payoff$3,129
Capital at risk$150,510
Latency budget100 ms
Decided within30.687 ms
Rationale tree · 1 of 1 rules fired
CR7.PROB_ARB_EDGEweight 65% · v0.4
polymarket_edge abs >= 0.05 (obs -0.094)
Polymarket implied prob differs from spot by 0.094
Resulting order intent
BUY · 0.73 · SOL-23MAY26-perp
Side
BUY
Qty
0.73
Limit
$166.81
Fill
$166.81